The Cost of Uncertainty: How Tariff Instability Is Disrupting Manufacturing and Distribution

Manufacturers and large-scale distributors are used to dealing with change. Shifts in supply chain costs, labor challenges, and regulatory updates are expected. What is more difficult to manage is uncertainty, and right now that is exactly what U.S. tariff policy is creating.

Over the past few months, tariffs have been announced, delayed, reconsidered, and reintroduced. While it is hard to blame tariffs alone for any disruptions, the lack of predictability is making long-term planning more difficult. As a result, companies are taking a cautious approach to hiring, investment, and supply chain decisions.

Tariff Activity in 2025: What’s Happening?

So far this year, we have seen:

• Proposed new tariffs on imports that have been announced and then postponed without a clear timeline
• Higher steel and aluminum tariffs that took effect in March, increasing material costs
• Discussions about raising auto part tariffs, but with no confirmed plan
• Ongoing uncertainty around agricultural tariffs, affecting freight and distribution planning

For manufacturers, the uncertainty is creating challenges in workforce planning and investment. Companies are not sure how long tariffs will last or if new ones will be added, making it harder to commit to expansion or new hiring.

How Uncertainty Affects Workforce Planning

Delayed Investments Lead to Delayed Hiring

Manufacturers and distributors plan for the long term. Expanding a facility, increasing production, or investing in automation requires confidence in what is ahead.

When tariff policies shift frequently, some companies hesitate to commit to major projects. If expansion plans are on hold, hiring often slows as well.

Even companies that want to grow are asking whether now is the right time or if they should wait to see how tariffs impact demand and costs.

Supply Chain Disruptions Create Workforce Instability

Every time a major tariff is introduced or reconsidered, companies adjust purchasing strategies.

• Some stockpile materials before a tariff takes effect, leading to a temporary increase in orders and staffing needs
• When demand slows after the rush, companies scale back production, creating workforce instability

This can lead to inconsistent staffing needs, making retention and workforce planning more difficult. With more flexibility in workforce management, businesses can adjust without the extremes. At Landrum Workforce Management, we help manufacturers build a scalable workforce strategy that adapts to market conditions.

Companies Are Taking a More Cautious Approach

A stable workforce depends on stable demand. Many manufacturers and distributors are being more careful with hiring and capital investment until they have a clearer view of future costs.

Some common responses to the current environment include:

• Pausing facility expansions
• Adjusting hiring plans to avoid overcommitting
• Reviewing supply chain strategies to manage potential cost increases

Even though long-term demand remains strong in many industries, short-term uncertainty is leading to more conservative decision-making.

How to Adapt in an Uncertain Market

Manufacturers cannot control trade policy, but they can take steps to manage uncertainty.

• Increase workforce flexibility – Scalable staffing solutions help companies adjust to demand changes without long-term risk. Landrum Workforce Management works with manufacturers to build adaptable workforce strategies.
• Diversify supply chain partners – Reducing reliance on any single country or supplier can help mitigate risk.
• Monitor policy trends – If a tariff has been in place for more than six months, it is more likely to remain, and companies should plan accordingly.

Uncertainty is likely to continue. Companies that take a proactive approach will be better positioned to adapt as the trade environment evolves.

What’s Your Take?

How is tariff uncertainty affecting your business? Have you adjusted hiring, investment, or supply chain strategies? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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